Colombia’s GDP Grew Faster Than Expected in the First Nine Months of 2025

In a global scenario marked by trade tensions, tariff threats, and a gradual distancing from U.S. influence, Colombia’s economy has achieved a noteworthy figure: a 2.8% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) so far this year. This performance, according to data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), exceeds the expectations many analysts had for 2025.

This result becomes even more relevant considering that the country faces an adverse international context: Rising tariff barriers, a slowdown in strategic economies, and a distancing from its traditional U.S. partner. Despite this, Colombia has managed to maintain economic expansion that, while moderate, surpasses the official growth forecast, which was around 2.5% for the entire year.

Colombia’s GDP grew faster than expected in the first nine months of 2026

The 2.8% increase accumulated through the third quarter signals that the Colombian economy is regaining some momentum. According to DANE, this growth is driven mainly by the commerce, transportation, lodging, and food services sectors, as well as by public administration, education, and health care. In particular, the past quarter reported an annual expansion of 3.6%, which represented a clear boost compared to previous quarters.

Domestic consumption stands out as the key engine: Household spending and demand for services have sustained economic activity even as other segments — such as construction or mining — remain sluggish. This behavior highlights an economy growing from within rather than relying on external demand.

Despite this better-than-expected trajectory, the external context has not been kind to Colombia. Tariff threats, combined with distancing from the United States as a trade partner, force the country to adjust its trade and foreign relations strategy. At the same time, net foreign investment has been affected by global uncertainty.

Domestically, challenges persist that could limit a greater acceleration of growth: The weakness of mining — hit by declining coal and oil production — and the contraction in building construction are two of the most visible drags. For now, the economy is growing, but with internal imbalances that require attention.

The role of public spending and consumption

A key factor behind the result is the combination of expansive public spending and dynamic private consumption. Activities related to government, health, and education grew significantly, adding strength to overall growth. This fiscal push has helped offset, in part, the weakness of private investment and certain productive sectors that have not fully picked up.

At the same time, commerce and lodging and transportation services reported growth above the national average, demonstrating a shift in pace compared to more subdued periods of the economy. Domestic demand has been the banner of this growth phase, which in turn has generated robust imports, putting pressure on the trade balance and underscoring that the acceleration is not being driven so much by exports as by domestic demand.

The big question is whether this 2.8% growth is the beginning of a more sustained path or simply a temporary improvement. Several factors call for caution. First, investment remains a weak point: although some improvement in machinery and equipment is beginning to appear, construction—particularly housing and nonresidential buildings—remains depressed.

Second, the dependence on public spending and consumption makes growth vulnerable to changes in fiscal policy, interest rates, or external conditions.

Finally, the international environment—less favorable than in other periods—means that exporting higher value–added goods and diversifying external markets must remain priorities to ensure sustained growth. The economy cannot rely exclusively on domestic momentum without strengthening its productive foundations.

Toward the end of the year: expectations and priorities

The 2.8% figure through the third quarter places Colombia in a better-than-expected position for 2025, but it does not lessen the need for action. Authorities and the private sector have clear tasks: Improving productivity, encouraging private investment, diversifying export markets, and containing fiscal deterioration.

Additionally, since the global economy is entering a phase of weaker momentum, refining the strategy to withstand a possible international slowdown is key.

In this context, the Colombian economy has shown that it can advance even when conditions are not the most favorable. The growth achieved demonstrates this. But to turn that improvement into something lasting, the country will need not only to maintain the pace but also to shift gears and revive the sectors that are not yet fully part of the recovery.

Despite the good news, the Colombian economy — highly influenced by international circumstances and external threats, as well as by its own internal instabilities — will need to consolidate these figures in the coming months to determine whether this resilience in such a challenging year as 2025 — with Donald Trump returning to the White House — becomes sustained, inclusive, and diversified growth, as the government aspires.