Outlook for the Dollar’s Price in Colombia After Its 2025 Decline

The year 2026 begins with analysts and economists closely watching the evolution of the dollar price against the Colombian peso, in a context marked by the strong appreciation of the local currency last year and mixed signals at both the national and global levels. After a 2025 in which the peso strengthened, accumulating a significant revaluation against the dollar, markets are trying to find a new equilibrium that incorporates factors such as international monetary policy, domestic economic indicators, and internal fiscal tensions.

Unlike the previous year, when the U.S. currency lost ground with a decline of more than 14% in Colombia, expectations for this new cycle appear to be moving toward greater caution and moderate volatility, with projections placing the exchange rate at relatively stable levels but with latent risks.

The dynamics of the dollar at the start of the year, with the Market Representative Rate hovering around 3,700–3,750 pesos, reflect the impact of that prior appreciation and the sensitivity of markets to recent economic news and monetary policy outlooks in the United States and Colombia. Investors are closely following Federal Reserve decisions, inflation figures, and growth indicators, aware that even small adjustments in global rates can alter perceptions of emerging market assets and demand for dollars.

Outlook for the dollar’s price in Colombia after its 2025 decline

The behavior of the exchange rate in 2025 was unusual by recent standards of the Colombian economy: Far from the depreciation pressure expected at the beginning of that year, the Colombian peso experienced a notable appreciation, positioning itself as the strongest emerging market currency in the region.

This phenomenon was largely due to the global weakness of the dollar, a situation reflected in a sustained decline of the U.S. currency against several emerging market currencies, driven by changes in risk perception and adjustments in interest rate expectations.

Despite this relative strength, the peso has not been spared from volatility. At the start of 2026, the exchange rate has shown upward and downward movements on consecutive days, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to short-term factors such as global economic news, inflation data, and the management of international reserves.

In this sense, although the 2025 appreciation has left a relatively favorable starting point for the peso, market operators know that any abrupt change in the international context can quickly reverse that positive balance.

Forecasts from economists and investment banks for 2026 agree that the exchange rate will not experience radical changes compared with the levels observed at the beginning of the year, although it could fluctuate within a wider range if some of the anticipated risks materialize.

Most forecasts place the dollar around figures close to 3,800 pesos, with variations depending on global and local conditions. This scenario implies relative stability, far from the extremes seen in previous cycles, but with possible episodes of adjustment in response to unexpected economic events.

A key element for this outlook is the expectation that U.S. monetary policy will maintain a certain degree of caution regarding rate cuts, which eases pressure on the dollar but also limits its further decline. On the other hand, inflation indicators in the United States and Colombia will directly influence central bank decisions and, therefore, investors’ perceptions of the dollar’s strength as a safe-haven asset.

The result is a view of moderation in which significant movements in the exchange rate could be more closely tied to specific events than to clear structural trends.

Internal factors that make the difference

Within Colombia, fiscal challenges and the political environment are important drivers that could shape the behavior of the dollar throughout the year. Public debt management, discussions over budgetary policy, and the outcomes of relevant political events generate uncertainty among market participants, who tend to demand a higher risk premium during periods of tension.

This premium can translate into greater demand for dollars for hedging or investment operations, putting upward pressure on the exchange rate.

In addition to these macroeconomic aspects, variables such as remittance flows, commodity prices — especially oil, whose export is fundamental for Colombia — and the trade balance will play crucial roles.

A rebound in international prices of exported goods can translate into higher dollar revenues for the country, strengthening the peso’s position and easing the need for abrupt adjustments in exchange rate policy.

Global risks and external sensitivity

One cannot speak about forecasts for the dollar in Colombia without considering the global context. The performance of the U.S. economy, international trade tensions, and the stance of central banks in major economies are variables that directly affect demand for dollars.

In a year marked by persistent geopolitical uncertainties and changes in global fiscal and monetary policies, currency markets will maintain a high degree of sensitivity to any signal of change in these areas.

The reality is that, at present, forecasts for the dollar in Colombia during 2026 point to a year of relative stability, with a trading range that could remain around moderate levels. Nevertheless, analysts do not rule out the possibility of episodes of volatility if risk factors emerge, internal and external, something that has occurred with some frequency in recent years in a changing and unpredictable global environment.

The strength accumulated by the peso in 2025 offers a cushion that could soften sharp movements, but Colombia’s internal fiscal tensions, global monetary policy decisions — including those of the Colombian central bank, which point to a possible interest rate hike to contain inflation — and the dynamics of international markets will continue to be decisive in shaping the exchange rate’s path in the coming months.