Colombia’s Birth Rate Hit 10-Year Low in 2024

Colombia’s birth rate continues to plummet, with a 14.4% drop in births reported between January and October 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. According to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), the country recorded 371,177 births during this period, down from 434,253 in 2023 – a decrease of 62,476. Over the past decade, births have fallen by 33.3%, demonstrating a significant and sustained decrease.

Colombia’s birth and fertility rates hit all-time low

Birth rates in Colombia have been declining sharply in recent years. In 2023, there was a 10.1% annual drop in births, the steepest in recorded history. According to Javier Sebastian Ruiz, DANE’s director of censuses and demographics, said that the 2022-2023 drop was the largest since vital statistics tracking began in 1998. However, preliminary 2024 data indicates that there has been an even larger decrease over the course of this year.

The country’s fertility rate is also declining, reaching a historic low of 1.2 children per woman in 2023, a 10.5% decrease from 2022 and 30.3% lower rate than in 2014. This is far below the replacement rate of 2.2 children per woman, as estimated by the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Ruiz attributed the sustained decline to broad socioeconomic changes in Colombia. The steep drop started in 2017 and worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the birth rate has fallen across Colombia, Amazon Region departments like Guainia and Vaupes reporting the largest declines of -40.7% and -20.0% respectively. June 2024 marked the lowest monthly births in the entire 2019-2024 period, with just 34,705 live births.

Rising death rates and public health concerns

As births decline, mortality rates are rising. Colombia recorded 227,641 deaths between January and October 2024, a 1.6% increase from the same period in 2023. The mortality rate for 2023 was 5.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, the highest in a decade outside the pandemic years.

Non-fetal deaths in 2023 totaled 268,411, with ischemic heart diseases accounting for 17.2% of all mortalities. These were followed by cerebrovascular diseases (6.2%) and chronic respiratory conditions (6.1%). Homicides ranked fourth at 5%. Deaths from dengue fever surged by 133.3% in 2024 compared to 2023, while tuberculosis mortality increased by 55.9% between 2020 and 2023, with a further rise anticipated in 2024.

Causes and perspectives

Colombia’s declining birth rate reflects various socioeconomic and cultural shifts, including rising living costs and economic instability. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, further discouraging parenthood. The precarious labor market and record emigration – 547,000 Colombians left the country in 2022 – further contributed to the trend. The number of people leaving the country is particularly concerning, with an estimated 1,200 Colombians leaving their homeland daily in 2024, totaling approximately 438,000 over the entire year.

Women’s empowerment is also a major factor. Greater access to education, employment, and contraception has enabled women to prioritize careers and personal goals, reducing fertility rates.

Colombia’s fertility trends mirror those of urbanized nations. In South America, only Bolivia, Paraguay, Venezuela, and Peru have fertility rates above the replacement level. Despite this decline, the United Nations projects Colombia’s population will grow from 52.2 million in 2023 to 56.9 million by 2050, before shrinking to 45.9 million by 2100.

The country faces challenges from an aging population. While 68.3% of Colombians are aged 15-64, 9.1% are over 65, a percentage expected to rise. As Colombia progresses in its demographic transition, it may face pressures similar to those seen in countries like Japan, where nearly 29% of the population is over 65 years of age.