Colombia Birth Rate Decline Follows Global Trend

Colombia’s birth rate is declining, as confirmed by the latest report of Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). As Colombia is going through its demographic transition, the country has experienced a steady decline in the number of births, dropping from 669,137 in 2014 to 510,357 births in 2023. The decline was particularly acute between 2022 and 2023, with births reducing from 573,625 to 510,357.

Colombia’s birth decline

There are several factors behind Colombia’s birth rate decline. The first and structural factor is the demographic transition, characteristic of modern societies that undergo socioeconomic development. Initially, the first phase of the transition leads to an increase in births and a decrease in the death rate. However, during the second phase, both rates decline until the birth rate eventually equalize the death rate. As such, Colombia has recently entered the second phase of the demographic transitions, which explains its declining birth rate.

The second factor, which is more conjunctural, is the increasing living cost in Colombia, which has surged following the Covid-19 crisis. As such, economic hardships and unfavorable conditions have deterred couples from having children. Additionally, this economic struggle has spurred another significant consequence affecting the birth rate: emigration. Indeed, emigration of Colombians has notably increased in recent years, reaching a record high with 547,000 citizens leaving the country in 2022.

Birth decline: A global phenomenon

The declining birth rate in Colombia aligns with a global trend observed in urbanized and industrialized countries. With a fertility rate of 1.7 children per women in 2023, as reported by the United Nations Population Fund, Colombia’s rate is on par with that of high-income countries like the United States and Sweden.

In South America, only Bolivia, Paraguay, Venezuela and Peru have fertility rates above the population replacement rate, ranging between 2.1 and 2.5 children per women. However, Colombia’s fertility rate remains higher than Uruguay, Chile (1.5) and Brazil (1.6).

Colombia’s demographic outlook

Despite the decline in births, it is crucial to contextualize Colombia’s demographics transition with a broader perspective. Indeed, Colombia is still in the middle of this transition and still boasts a vigorous demographics profile. According to the UN World Population Prospects, Colombia’s population is expected to increase from a current population of 52.2 million in 2023 to 56.9 million in 2050. From there, Colombia’s population will gradually decrease, eventually reaching 45,9 million inhabitants in 2100.

Regarding population aging, Colombia’s median age is currently around 31, with 68.3 percent of Colombians aged between 15 and 64. Furthermore, 22.6 percent are 14 or younger and 9.1 percent are older than 65. This distribution contrasts with countries at different stages of the demographics transition. For instance, Japan, which is further along in the demographic transition process, has 29 percent of its population aged 65 and older. On the other hand, in Niger, where the process is only starting, 48.8 percent of the population is aged 14 or under.